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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."