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It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against the Red Devils.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.